Ember

Ember is a pioneering public AI prediction engine designed for transparency and reliability in forecasting. It operates on the principle that trust in AI predictions hinges on understanding the reasoning behind them. Every morning at 7 AM EST, three distinct AI models—Claude from Anthropic, Grok from xAI, and Gemini from Google—generate independent predictions on live Polymarket markets, ensuring they do not consult each other. Divergences in their predictions, specifically when they differ from the crowd by 10 or more percentage points, are flagged as high-conviction signals, allowing users to identify potential insights before market resolutions. The entire process is meticulously logged, with every prediction timestamped and analyzed post-outcome, offering a transparent and accountable record of performance over a full year. This makes Ember an invaluable tool for traders, bettors, and anyone interested in data-driven decision-making.

Independent AI Predictions

Ember leverages three independent AI models—Claude, Grok, and Gemini—to generate predictions. This independence ensures that the predictions are not influenced by consensus, allowing users to see true divergences from the market crowd.

High-Conviction Signals

When the predictions from the AI models diverge from the crowd by 10 or more percentage points, these discrepancies are flagged as high-conviction signals. This feature helps users identify potential opportunities for profitable betting or trading.

Transparent Record Keeping

All predictions made by Ember are timestamped and logged without any edits or deletions. This creates an immutable record of performance that users can trust, fostering accountability and transparency in AI predictions.

Real-Time Data Synthesis

Ember synthesizes data from a multitude of sources, including live betting markets, bookmaker lines, and AI research feeds. This comprehensive data analysis occurs right before each call, ensuring that predictions are informed by the latest information available.

Sports Betting

Sports bettors can utilize Ember's predictions to gain insights into upcoming events, leveraging high-conviction signals to make informed decisions that could lead to more profitable outcomes.

Market Analysis

Traders in financial markets can benefit from Ember's AI-generated signals, using the divergences from the crowd as indicators for potential market movements, helping them to strategize their trades effectively.

Research and Development

Researchers in AI and machine learning can analyze the performance of different AI models in predicting market outcomes, gaining valuable insights into model behavior and effectiveness over time.

Strategic Decision Making

Businesses and organizations can use Ember's predictions to inform strategic decisions, such as product launches or marketing campaigns, based on the predicted outcomes of relevant market events.

How does Ember ensure the accuracy of its predictions?

Ember tracks the accuracy of its predictions using Brier scores, a calibration metric that assesses both accuracy and confidence. This allows users to evaluate the reliability of the AI models over time.

What happens if all three AI models agree?

When all three models agree on a prediction, this consensus is noted, but it does not trigger a high-conviction signal. The goal of Ember is to highlight areas of divergence, where the market may be mispriced.

Can I access Ember’s predictions in real time?

Yes, subscribers can view Ember’s predictions and high-conviction signals at 7:00 AM EST before they are released to the public, giving them a competitive edge in the market.

What types of markets does Ember analyze?

Ember analyzes live Polymarket markets, bookmaker lines, and various AI research feeds, synthesizing data from multiple sources to provide comprehensive predictions on a range of topics.